The Slow Fall of Vladimir Putin?

What will the future hold for Putin?

Vladimir Putin - Russia's strong-man president - seems to have been successful in his annexation of Crimea. Despite many objections from the U.S. and the E.U. in particular, he seems to have gotten things his way.

Putin has the oligarch vote

However, what many commentators seem to forget is that Russia is not really a democracy. The 'success' that we award Putin is based on our (Western) view of what keep politicians strong, namely popular support. But in Russia that's really not all that important. Ask any governor or oligarch: What is the source of your influence? They won't respond 'the people'. Instead it is the that fact that business and politics are more intertwined than in the U.S. or the E.U. A successful business in Russia is by definition influential as it provides access to power. And vice versa.

Multinationals pull out of Russia

Foreign companies are starting to suffer from the sanctions against Russia and its conflict with Ukraine. Carlsberg, the Danish brewery with global reach, saw its share price plunge 7 percent on 19 August  when the company reported lower operating profits than expected, according to CNBC/Reuters. Carlsberg has closed two of its breweries there due to a "deteriorating macroeconomic climate" in both Russia and Ukraine. For Russia to see a big multinational close down its direct investments there is a bad omen. Fewer foreign investments will only lead to lower Russian growth, higher unemployment and greater instability in the region. If history is anything to go by, the will spell greater social unrest, protests, violence, etc. Ultimately, Russia might see itself expelled from international organizations like the WTO if the country reacts to this changing climate with protectionism - which is highly likely. Already, as the BBC reports, Putin is handing out decrees ordering the destruction of Western - or partially Western - products like cheese, bacon, tomatoes and fruit coming into the country - to the dissatisfaction of ordinary Russians who struggle to make ends meet.

Endgame

So for the moment, Putin seems to have played his cards right. For now, he has the support of the people because he has successfully created the narrative that it is the West that is trying to bully Russia - and not the other way around. But as we're seeing, money is starting to flow out of Russia. That was expected, of course, but the extent - and speed - with which this has occurred should be a source of concern for Putin. His power rests on the shoulders of oligarchs, and they are the ones paying the price for Putin's politics. For how long will they continue to support him while they see the international markets react against them?

America's Waning Power

The Washington Post has an interesting piece about President Obama's speech at West Point - the prestigious American military academy. He said American leadership would persist for the next 100 years. China, on the other hand, didn't seem to agree to that statement.

But it is impossible to say. No question, the U.S.A. will continue - and also probably for the next 100 years - to be highly influential. But as THE dominant power America will most likely see its power diminish dramatically.

Examples of American powerlessness

Right now the U.S. still has the strongest military, the most innovative businesses, and a strong economy. But how does that influence America's ability to dictate what happens in the world? Let's look at some examples. Syria, the Central African Republic, Iran, North Korea, Nigeria, Crimea. In which of these has the U.S. gotten its way? The U.S. is already seeing its power wane. So how will it look a hundred years from now?

Moving toward an even more multi-polar world

After the Second World War the U.S. led a unipolar world up until the Cold War when it became a bi-polar World. After that, the U.S. became the leader, but of an increasingly multi-polar world. Now, the U.S.A., the E.U. and China probably shares 3/4 of the power with the rest shared among the rest of the world. A hundred years from now the U.S. and the E.U. may just have 1/4 while Asia will be the most dominant. This is based on the simple premise that both the U.S. and the E.U. will have reached its natural limit in terms of people and economic output.

A hundred years ago - in 1914 - the contours of a new world order were just in the making. In 2014 it is impossible to predict how it will look in 2114.