Saturday, May 31, 2014

America's Waning Power

The Washington Post has an interesting piece about President Obama's speech at West Point - the prestigious American military academy. He said American leadership would persist for the next 100 years. China, on the other hand, didn't seem to agree to that statement.

But it is impossible to say. No question, the U.S.A. will continue - and also probably for the next 100 years - to be highly influential. But as THE dominant power America will most likely see its power diminish dramatically.

Examples of American powerlessness

Right now the U.S. still has the strongest military, the most innovative businesses, and a strong economy. But how does that influence America's ability to dictate what happens in the world? Let's look at some examples. Syria, the Central African Republic, Iran, North Korea, Nigeria, Crimea. In which of these has the U.S. gotten its way? The U.S. is already seeing its power wane. So how will it look a hundred years from now?

Moving toward an even more multi-polar world

After the Second World War the U.S. led a unipolar world up until the Cold War when it became a bi-polar World. After that, the U.S. became the leader, but of an increasingly multi-polar world. Now, the U.S.A., the E.U. and China probably shares 3/4 of the power with the rest shared among the rest of the world. A hundred years from now the U.S. and the E.U. may just have 1/4 while Asia will be the most dominant. This is based on the simple premise that both the U.S. and the E.U. will have reached its natural limit in terms of people and economic output.

A hundred years ago - in 1914 - the contours of a new world order were just in the making. In 2014 it is impossible to predict how it will look in 2114.

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